How Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been overstated, apparently.
Just days after President Trump said he planned to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is another twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that truce deal, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was Israel's move to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the face of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his skill to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The next day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a short period, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately urging Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a truce along present frontlines – something Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that pledge, saying that concluding the war is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, give up the fight.